{"id":1195,"date":"2022-09-28T01:50:25","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T01:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/?p=1195"},"modified":"2022-09-28T01:50:32","modified_gmt":"2022-09-28T01:50:32","slug":"simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/","title":{"rendered":"Simple Certainty | Bear Markets: Fearsome Name, but Fearsome Bite?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no doubt that bear markets can be a wild ride, but close attention to the facts reveal that their growl is far worse than their bite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to the second episode of Simple Certainty in our series on market myths. If you missed the first episode, which focused on market corrections, be sure to check it out; lots of telling facts that go a long way to dispelling the superstition that hovers over the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This episode, however, is concerned with bear markets, what many fear a correction may turn into. But, is that fear justified?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"embed-container\"><iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/CIyvh_80Xfc\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How often do bear markets occur?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Once again, we\u2019re going to do that Halcyon thing of using facts to dispel myth. Between 1900 and 2015, there were 34 bear markets, about one every three years. In the last 70 years, there have been 14, a rate of one every five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, they occur more often than most people think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bear markets aren\u2019t for the faint hearted&#8230;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re not going to sugar coat it. They can be rough. On average, the S&amp;P 500 has dropped by 33% during a bear market. In more than a third of them, it\u2019s been a plunge of more than 40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\u2019re one prone to anxiety, these will be tough times. All around you, people are getting consumed by pessimism, and there\u2019s a pervasive belief that markets will never rise again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even many financial advisers will fall victim to the panic and cease all communication. But, if you\u2019re with us, we\u2019ll be broadcasting our message loud and clear: \u2018stay the course\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>&#8230;but it\u2019s important you remain steadfast<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall? It was bleak, to say the least, and not many could see a light at the end of the tunnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In March 2009, the markets finally hit rock bottom. And do you remember what happened next? The S&amp;P 500 surged by 69.5% over the next 12 months. It was an incredible recovery, which began one of the greatest bull markets in history!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But wasn\u2019t this just a freak occurrence? I hear some pessimists ask.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, let\u2019s take a look at another fact. In the past 75 years, markets have averaged a return of 39% in the first 12 months following a bear market. In fact, in the US, every single bear market has been followed by a bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the facts tell us<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This tells us three things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol type=\"1\"><li>The doom and gloom surrounding bear markets simply isn\u2019t warranted.<\/li><li>The worst thing you can do is sell and then watch as the market surges.<\/li><li>Warren Buffet was on to something when he said he likes to be greedy when others are fearful. In other words, a bear market is an opportunity to buy when the price is low.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>The reality is this: we operate in developed markets that have a general upward bias because our economy grows over the long term. Along the way, yes, there will be dips, and they will create anxiety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But by using the past as a guide and focusing on the facts, we give ourselves the best chance of not only surviving the troughs, but coming out of them stronger than before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What\u2019s the biggest danger of the stock market? Stay tuned&#8230;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s it for our episode on Bear Markets. Next time on <a href=\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty\/\">Simple Certainty<\/a>, we take a closer look at why being out of the market is the greatest danger. \u2018Til then, stay well.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Make sure to call us on <a href=\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/contact\/\">(03) 9835 3800<\/a> to book your personal appointment. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Please note this is general information only and you should always seek your own personal<br>advice.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s no doubt that bear markets can be a wild ride, but close attention to the facts reveal that their growl is far worse than their bite. Welcome to the second episode of Simple Certainty in our series on market myths. If you missed the first episode, which focused on market corrections, be sure to <a href=\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\" class=\"more-link\">[&hellip;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Simple Certainty | Bear Markets: Fearsome Name, but Fearsome Bite?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This episode is concerned with bear markets, what many fear a market correction may turn into. But, is that fear justified?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Simple Certainty | Bear Markets: Fearsome Name, but Fearsome Bite?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bear markets aren\u2019t for the faint hearted...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Halcyon Private Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-09-28T01:50:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-09-28T01:50:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Market-Bear-1200x628-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hakyonph\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hakyonph\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"hakyonph\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/#\/schema\/person\/364462fb957775530387479d19a2b1af\"},\"headline\":\"Simple Certainty | Bear Markets: Fearsome Name, but Fearsome Bite?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-09-28T01:50:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-09-28T01:50:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\"},\"wordCount\":635,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Bear-Markets-1333x583-Video.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Simple Certainty\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/\",\"name\":\"Simple Certainty | Bear Markets: Fearsome Name, but Fearsome Bite?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/simple-certainty-bear-markets-fearsome-name-but-fearsome-bite\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Bear-Markets-1333x583-Video.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-09-28T01:50:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-09-28T01:50:32+00:00\",\"description\":\"This episode is concerned with bear markets, what many fear a market correction may turn into. 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