{"id":1277,"date":"2023-02-28T00:46:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-28T00:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/?p=1277"},"modified":"2023-03-22T00:58:57","modified_gmt":"2023-03-22T00:58:57","slug":"market-update-whats-in-the-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/market-update-whats-in-the-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Update | What\u2019s in the Price?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Key Points:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n In this month\u2019s Market Insight<\/em>, we dive into market pricing versus current consensus and our own expectations, outlining what we think various markets are expecting in the year ahead and where opportunity may potentially lay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For most of last year we anticipated that the US and most other major developed economies would suffer a recession at some point this year. Over time, most economists have shifted towards this view, with around 60% of economists now forecasting a US recession according to Refinitiv. An even greater number expect a recession in Europe and the UK (see below chart). Interestingly, Australia and Japan have a relatively low forecast risk of recession. Australia\u2019s expected resilience likely reflects strong China linkages (no economist is forecasting much pain for China\u2019s economy this year) and a more moderate central bank tightening cycle. The Bank of Japan has yet to raise rates, likely driving its peculiar outcome – peculiar because the Japanese economy has shrunk in 19 of the 51 quarters since 2010, so the probability should be high from a baseline perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n