{"id":1402,"date":"2024-01-15T00:44:50","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T00:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/?p=1402"},"modified":"2024-01-15T00:44:57","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T00:44:57","slug":"market-update-looking-to-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/halcyonpw.com.au\/market-update-looking-to-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Update | Looking to 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Key Points:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Every December for the past few years, our Market Insight<\/em> has focused on how we fared in our predictions the year before and what is the general outlook for the year ahead. 2023 has been a confounding year. The consensus expectation (also held by us) at the end of 2022 would be that major global economies would suffer a minor recession in 2023 because of monetary policy tightening. Because of this, investor positioning was tilted strongly away from equities. We were also underweight equities, which seemed like a logical position to be in if a recession is expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In practice, while global economic growth weakened, and many countries suffered \u201ctechnical\u201d recessions, the United States economy remained resilient and technology companies rallied strongly on AI positivity, supporting global equity markets through the year. The nuance here is demonstrated in the charts below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of the 35 largest countries in the OECD, nearly 40% have experienced two consecutive quarters of decline in economic activity since 2022. Only a handful of countries, including Australia, which is in a per-capita recession, have experienced consistent growth in the past two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n